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正文內(nèi)容 </div> <div class="z9zeqvi" id="sticky"> <div id="39hcjgc" class="content"> <div data-cateurl="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/?cate=2" class="block"> <div id="uzq3bok" class="post"> <h1>理科學霸：用公式破解賠率的本質(zhì)和返獎率的秘密?。ǜ韶洠?/h1> <div id="am9lx43" class="info"> <span id="4baw8i0" class="user"><a href="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/?auth=1" rel="nofollow">杏彩體育</a></span><span id="vqhcxrn" class="date">2年前<span id="ytl3pl8" class="datetime"> (2023-02-26)</span></span><span id="wmagrws" class="cate"><a href="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/?cate=2">足球資訊</a></span><span id="i8boq38" class="view">78</span> <div id="b09fier" class="ctrl"><a href="javascript:;" title="增加字號"></a><a href="javascript:;" title="減小字號"></a><a href="javascript:;" title="還原字號" class="hide"></a></div> </div> <div id="obsp9y2" class="single viewall"> <p> <div style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">歸根結(jié)底，歐賠理論是一套完整的數(shù)學體系，因此使用數(shù)學語言描述才更為貼切，其中無可避免地要涉及到一些簡單的數(shù)學公式，當然我不會搬出來誰都看不懂的數(shù)學公式忽悠大家，我保證只要上過初中的都能看得懂。那么今后的5篇可以稱之為「基礎(chǔ)篇」。</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/15350001480eb68d2ae9~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=xRfpCnwj1%2FN2%2BgvXWhOm9BXLBBw%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">前面講到，賠率的本質(zhì)是概率，但賠率又不等同于概率，兩者之間是成反比關(guān)系的。既然是反比關(guān)系，那么賠率與其對應(yīng)概率的乘積就是一個常量，用字母n來表示。假設(shè)某場比賽勝平負的概率分別是a、b、c (a+b+c=100%)，則其對應(yīng)的賠率p、q、r分別為</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/149d0006d60e9e60c236~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=egHq%2FUg%2FCsmYuCkXB1AX0XbVDZ4%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">不難發(fā)現(xiàn)：賠率的倒數(shù)和也是一個常量，即</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/149d0006d64669366a4d~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=qfZ1mJGOECcTDwbJUXEfwc9kp3A%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">下面就可以找到常量n和賠率之間的關(guān)系：</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/14a10004adcc6fc666f3~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=bgQUisW5SoxPZPXWQs1%2B4bEQ9B8%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">我們把常量n稱作<strong style="color: blue;">賠付率</strong>，又叫作<strong style="color: blue;">返還率（或返獎率）。</strong>由⑵式可以看出賠付率n與賠率是同相的，如果n=1，那么賠率正好是概率的倒數(shù)，則此時的賠率是最“公平”的，我們將這種賠率稱作<strong style="color: blue;">原始賠率</strong>。但是博彩公司不是慈善機構(gòu)，為獲取一定的利潤，賠付率通常是小于1的，（1- n）就是博彩公司的利潤，俗稱“抽水”。</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">再用用賠付率n乘上原始賠率，即</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/1531000408966f156cc9~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=IdBa2qITh61d2hcrh8TFReh%2BRlQ%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">這就是我們在網(wǎng)上能查看到的賠率，即<strong style="color: blue;">標準賠率</strong>。如果用標準賠率再乘賠付率n，就得到“正交”賠率，而<strong style="color: blue;">正交賠率</strong>是我分析預(yù)測足球比賽的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)。</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/153300015873dd99c98e~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=a8RtxvLJxxPdHbceDCiF%2FPMrx%2Fw%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">不知道你們看懂了沒有，下面用實例來說明。比如西甲第17輪最后一場比賽</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">我最喜歡的奧薩蘇納VS巴倫西亞</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">可以套用上面的公式計算出來競彩單場的賠付率，即單關(guān)返獎率</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">n = 1/ (1/p + 1/q + 1/r) = 1/(1/4.30 + 1/3.45 + 1/1.65) ≈ 0.885</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">現(xiàn)在賠付率和賠率都是已知量，又可以計算勝平負三項賠率對應(yīng)的概率</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"> a = n/p = 0.885÷4.30 = 20.6%</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"> b = n/q = 0.885÷3.45 = 25.7%</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"> c = n/r = 0.885÷1.65 = 53.6%</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">考慮到四舍五入計數(shù)誤差，可驗證三項概率的和a+b+c=100%</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">當然，你們還可以計算讓球玩法或其他比賽的返獎率，結(jié)果應(yīng)該是大同小異。但這只是單場比賽的返獎率，根據(jù)排列組合的乘法原理，過關(guān)場次越多，返獎率就越低。例如</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">2串1返獎率為 0.885×0.885 = 78.3%</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">3串1返獎率為 0.885×0.885×0.885 = 69.3%</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">……………</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">8串1返獎率只有 37.6%。</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/1535000149a81950b95e~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=fl%2FdRjfDcklCyC%2BGfCBhabhbZYU%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">以上數(shù)據(jù)均可以通過平均優(yōu)化的方式驗證。也就是說，將1萬元注碼平分成100份，每次拿出一份（100元）購買8串1，如果不考慮彩民的投注水平，從概率上說只能收回不到4000元。所以這類彩民虧損，不是因為自身的水平不夠，而是輸在了數(shù)學概率上。所以，減少串關(guān)場次，對彩民來說是有利的。</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">正是因為賠付率的出現(xiàn)，從理論上講，莊家才有了盈利的可能。賠付率越低，莊家盈利也就越多；相反，賠付率越高，莊家盈利就越少，但這并不代表利潤變少。薄利多銷是個很簡單的道理，如果一家博彩公司降低在每個玩家身上榨取的利潤，開出相比其他公司更高的賠率，那么在其他公司投注的資金將會蜂擁而至。有一項數(shù)據(jù)表明，在全球博彩市場中，返獎率每提高一個百分點，銷量就會增加10%。因此，主動放棄一部分利潤率，也許會帶來更多的利潤，反之亦然。</p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;"><img src="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/zb_users/theme/tpure/style/images/lazyload.png" data-original="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/153500014a3db413f6cd~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&x-expires=1677988218&x-signature=mZdVALVvcWzJQU3G3wz1hrVRjlY%3D" class="lazyload" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p> <p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">賠付率是博彩公司事先預(yù)定好的系數(shù)，選項越少的玩法，它的賠付率通常越高，而選項越多的玩法，賠付率往往越低。比如亞盤是兩項盤，它的返獎率通常大于歐賠；勝平負（包括讓球勝平負）是三項盤，返獎率又遠遠高于半全場、比分等玩法。亞盤的賠付率也是可以計算的，方法和歐賠相似，這塊內(nèi)容要過兩周才能說到，而歐賠有勝平負三個選項，但每個選項的實際賠付又是各不相同的。換言之，博彩公司內(nèi)部會對比賽做出自己的判斷，然后壓低或抬高某一項賠率，以期得到更高的利潤。這就牽扯到凱利指數(shù)這個概念了，我們下期接著講。</p> </div> </p> </div> <div id="lxf9awb" class="copynotice"> <div data-qrurl="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/?id=63414" class="tpureqr"></div> <div id="4wvil3z" class="copynoticetxt"> <p>掃描二維碼推送至手機訪問。</p><p>版權(quán)聲明：本文由<strong>財神資訊-領(lǐng)先的體育資訊互動媒體轉(zhuǎn)載發(fā)布</strong>，如需刪除請聯(lián)系。</p> <p>本文鏈接：<a href="http://www.daniuzhishi.com/?id=63414">http://www.daniuzhishi.com/?id=63414</a></p> </div> </div> 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